This setup is perfect not because E/U direction is clear, but because it will be SUPER-EASY to realise that you are wrong and this mistake will be CHEAP.
E/U closed above 1.10 last Friday and frankly I was tempted to jump in after the breakdown and bet on momentum that will drive pair lower at least till 1.0950. There was some reasonable fundamental context for this trade (weekend close, December tariff uncertainty with Dollar acting a safe-heaven, etc.), but further price action revealed that I was wrong (Thanks God!) and I quickly closed the trade with small profit (Check my last trade http://bit.ly/pipvision) And then …BOOM! you know what has happened, many breakout traders were trapped and are now sitting with their shorts hoping for the pressure to resume.
On 4H timeframe you can notice that the support area were largely not violated in the three previous attempts. Current support area is nearly crucial level of 1.10 where long-term trends may be initiated so this trade can be easily converted from short-term to long-term if further price evolution favours that. You may argue that support holding is relatively simple observation but remember that many successful trades have simple setups supporting them. There is no reason to complicate if we can propose simple model that (yeah, Occam’s razor).
Now turn to the logic of the trade. We have busy economic calendar next week with NFP and looming December 15 tariffs (possible inflection point) which are expected to be gradually clarified by the US-Sino officials. Therefore, the probability that the EU will finally CHOOSE trend is rising. It’s good because we look for early entry points and we basically don’t care about the trend direction but care about its onset instead. Combining this with the fact that the support remained intact (3 times) there is a reason to expect that E/U will start trending higher. I will bet on this. But if it won’t be confirmed we will quickly realise our mistake and close at SL during 4th, but this time TRUE breakout.
Entry point: As early as possible after the Monday start, above 1.10.
TP: 1.1090 – 1.11, but the trade can be converted to long-term, so I will let part of my profits run if conditions favour.
SL: Hard SL at 1.0980.
Enjoy and Happy Trading!