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30/04/16 Market notes

US indices closed the week with declines, Amazon surprises investors with earnings report.

US indices closed the week with declines, Amazon surprises investors with earnings report.

The US stock market closed trading in Friday with declines amid negative dynamics in the health care sector, technology and finance.
Dow Jones fell by 0,32% at the close, S&P 500 index dropped 0,51%, NASDAQ Composite Index fell 0.62%.

The leaders of growth among the Dow Jones index components in Friday were the shares of Home Depot Inc., which rose  0.87%, closing at 133.89. Stocks of the Travelers Companies Inc rose 0.68%, ending trading at 109.90. Shares of Nike Inc rose 0.68%, closing at 58.94.
Worst performers were the shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which price fell 2.96%, ending the session at around 66.87. In technology sector the shares of Intel Corporation rose 2.67% to 30.28, Cisco Systems gave way by 1. 68% and finished trading at around 27.49.

The S&P 500 top performers at the end of Friday trading were the shares of Monster Beverage 1990 Corp, which rose by 12.81% to 144,22, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which scored 10.76%, to 14.00, and shares of Inc, which rose by 9.57%, ending the session at around 659.59 after a release better-than-expected corporate earning reports, with cloud services as a main driver for growth.

Leaders of falling were shares of Stericycle Inc., which fell in price by 21.50% to 95.56. Shares of Seagate Technology PLC lost 19.07% and closed the session at 21.77. Shares of Western Digital Corporation decreased by 11.28% to 40.87.
The leaders of growth among the NASDAQ Composite index components were the shares of Globus Maritime Ltd, which rose by 200.00% to the level of 1,2900, Paragon Shipping Inc, who scored 50.86 % to 2.6400, as well as shares of KBS Fashion Group Ltd, which rose by 30.42% and closed the session at around 0.4043.
Leaders of falling were the shares of Park-Ohio Holdings Corp, which fell in price by 36.42% to close at 25.45. Shares of the company Golar LNG Limited lost 23.24% and closed the session at 16.58. Quotes Stericycle Inc decreased in price by 21.50% to 95.56.
Volatility Index also know as CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on options trading indicators on the S&P 500 rose by 4.14% reaching 15.85 points.
Gold futures for June delivery added 2.39%, or 30.25, reaching $ 1.296,65 for troy ounce. As for other commodities, the price of oil WTI with delivery fell by 0.11% in June, or 0.05, to $ 45.98 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 0.82%, or 0.39, to $ 47.38 a barrel.
Meanwhile, in the Forex market EUR/USD pair rose by 0.86% to 1.1450, and the quotation USD / JPY fell 1.57%, reaching 106.41.
USD index dropped by 0.76% to 93.02.

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30/04/16 Market notes

Libya destroyed Petroleum industry seeks ways for recovery

Libya destroyed Petroleum industry seeks ways for recovery

Libya National Oil Corporation (NOC) has set an ambitious goal – restore production to the levels at which it was before the civil war in 2011, and which had fallen during the years of violence and disruptions in production, officials said.
Oil production in Libya is now less than a quarter of the 1.6 million barrels per day, that country produced before the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, and the NOC, based in Tripoli, hopes to quickly increase it with the support of the new government of national unity.
However, full recovery may take years due to strikes of petroleum industry workers, political squabbles and militant attacks of “Islamic state”.

Over a year ago the jihadists attacked the fields of Al-Ghani Al-Mabrouk and Dahr in the Sirte Basin, forcing the NOC to declare a state of emergency on 11 fields.
The representative of the NOC in Tripoli told Reuters that as a result of attacks on deposit in the western basin of Sirte – the richest in Libya – production fell by about 200,000 barrels a day.
NOC may take some time before the end of 2017 or beginning of 2018, to restore the old power fields, the official said, if corporations have enough money to repair.
The first phase consists of three stages of the recovery plan will be implemented within three months, another representative of the NOC said in Tripoli that will return the deposit to the El Sharara and the Elephant, a total capacity of 430,000 barrels per day.

However, the restoration of other fields, especially those which was under directly strikes, as well as supplying the largest shipping terminals Libya – Ras Lanuf and Es Sidr – it may take more time, he added.
It may take years for the restoration of destroyed infrastructure in the ports, delaying the start of fields supplying them.
“All these plans are dependent on safety if proper and reliable protection of oil facilities will not be provided, our plans will be jeopardized”, – said the second official.
However, industry sources do not expect to increase production above the level of 600,000 barrels per day in the next few months.

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28/04/16 Market notes

Fed sees US economic outlook more stable, BoJ leaves QE volume unchanged

Fed sees US economic outlook more stable, BoJ leaves QE volume unchanged

The US Federal Reserve has remained its key monetary benchmark in the range of 0.25-0.50 percent, but made clear that it is confident in the prospects for the US economy, leaving the door open to raise borrowing costs in June.
The Federal Open Market Committee said that the situation on the labor market continues to improve, despite the recent economic slowdown, and that it keeps a close eye on the inflation.
The watchdog added that the situation in the global economy remains on its radar, but didn’t say it presents a risk for United States.

“The Committee continues to closely monitor the indicators of inflation and the dynamics of the world economy and finance”, – was said in the report on results of the Fed’s two-day meeting.
Federal Reserve for the first time in nearly a decade lifted the rate in December last year. Now the regulator but expected number of hikes from four to two, one of them is certainly expected in December.

Yesterday’s Fed statement is the third in a row in which the regulator is not talking about the balance of risks to the economy.
However, the Fed noted that despite a slight slowdown in household spending, their real income is increasing by “solid pace”, and consumer sentiment stays at a high level.
Inflation in the US has accelerated somewhat recently, but the Fed said that it will remain low in the short term, partly due to the recent decline in energy prices. However, the regulator added that it was confident that inflation will accelerate to a guideline of 2 percent over the medium term.

The Fed also reiterated that the situation in the US economy will develop in a way that ensures “a gradual increase” of the interest rate.

The yen has strengthened against the dollar and the euro on Thursday after Kuroda’s team left monetary policy unchanged, dissipating speculations that the watchdog can expand the already large-scale easing program.
The Japanese central bank kept the rate at minus 0.1 per cent, despite the challenges of the global economy, strong yen and weak consumption.
US dollar is down 2.84 percent to 108.28 yen. USD/JPY rose to 111.80 in the last week on speculations that the Bank of Japan is considering the spread of its policy of negative interest rates on loans to banks.

Shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell sharply, Nikkei 225 fell to 3.61%, after the Bank of Japan decided not to change interest rates despite the fact that its inflation target of about 2% faces will be quite hard to reach.

The market expected the BoJ would yield to temptation to extend QE after Bloomberg had reported that the results of Thursday meeting should be extension of the policy of negative interest rates, introduced in January.

Household spending in Japan fell 5.3% in March year on year, missing expectations of 4.2% decline. The nationwide core consumer price index in March fell 0.3% year on year versus a projected drop of 0.2% and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.2% despite the estimate of 3.3% .
The volume of industrial production in Japan in March rose by 3.6% on monthly basis, while expected to grow by 2.9%, while the volume of retail sales fell by 1.1% year on year, although it was expected to drop to 1.5% .



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23/04/16 Forex education

Leverage in details: How it works, Pros and Cons.

Leverage in details: How it works, Pros and Cons.

So you heard some stories that having $200 of your own capital you can turn it $500 or $1000 in a couple of trades. How come that it is possible? No you don’t need to visit casino, just use such wonderful thing as a financial leverage. It is a short-term loan given to a trader, proportional to his deposit. The purpose of this loan is to multiply gains, but as nothing good comes without bad you also multiply losses using it. Basically it allows a trader to earn MORE or to earn FASTER. Or lose in the same manner.
In newbie trader hands high leverage often leads to wiping out trading capital. The problem lies in psychology: it is natural that a human prefers to increase odds of happening of something desirable and decrease probability of happening of something unwelcome, even if both events have equal odds to happen. In trading it results in overrating EXPECTED returns and underrating REAL risks.I want all newbies to read it twice and understand, because it forms a basis of trading using high leverage.
So to get a better understanding of the leverage let’s compare how trading goes with and without it (hope you read my previous article how forex works and know how profit forms in currency speculations)

Trading without leverage (or 1:1 leverage)

Suppose you have $200 and read news today that US Federal Reserve is going to decrease interest rate from 1.00% to 0.50%. Basically it means that the Bank wants to make borrowings of US Dollar cheaper (better to pay 0.5% interest than 1%, isn’t it?). It is reasonable to expect US Dollar will drop against other currencies. You simply exchange your $200 to Euro by the current exchange rate of 1.1300 and get 177 EUR. Federal Reserve does decrease the rate to 0.5%, US Dollar depreciates against other currencies and EUR/USD exchange rate surges to 1.1500. You exchange your 177 EUR back to US Dollars and get 177*1.15=203.55 bucks. Congratulations – you beat the market and earned 3.55 Dollars from forex trading!

Trading with 1:500 leverage

Having $200 and applying all 1:500 leverage you virtually get 200*500=100 000$.  It’s sad, but you can’t withdraw them, I tried :). Basically those money are available for you only when you open some position and they’re automatically deducted when you close a trade. So you open same position in the example above ( buy EUR for Dollars) but now use your leverage. Exchanging 100 000$ to EUR you receive 100 000/1.13 = 88.495 EUR. When you exchange it back when exchange rate rose to 1.15 you receive 88.495*1.15=101769 Dollars. You return the loan and your profit is 1769-200=1569 bucks.

Looks pretty good but don’t hurry to follow this perfect scenario. Lets consider the underside of the leverage – when you are wrong with a market forecast and leverage starts to work against you:

For example the Federal Reserve decided to leave the interest rate untouched at 1.00% and Dollar appreciated against other currencies. EUR/USD exchange rate dropped to 1.1000 on the news. In case of 1:1 leverage if you decide to make reverse exchange you get back 177*1.10=194.7 bucks or bear $5.3 loss.

But what happens with a leveraged trade?

As you exchanged $100 000 to 88 495 EUR at 1.1300 and exchange rate dropped to 1.1000 you get back 88 495*1.10 = $97 345. But you have only $200 in your account what about rest of the loss? Does broker pay it for you? The answer is NO. The broker won’t simply allow you to hold position open till the rate drops to 1.1000 and close your position even earlier. Earlier, but where? To calculate that you need to understand what is pip value and how much profit or loss you get when exchange rate moves by 1 pip.

1 pip is 0.0001 of exchange rate or 1/10000th of the trade size. In our case, 1 pip move causes a change from 1.1300 to 1.1301 (pip up) or 1.1299 (pip down)
In case of 1:1 leverage and $200 position, 1 pip value (in $) is (0.0001*200)/1.13=0.018 or 1.8 euro cents. That’s why when exchange rate dropped from 1.1300 to 1.1000 (300 pips) you could lose 0.018*300 pips~ $5.3.
But when you trade full standard lot ($100 000) pip value is (0.0001*100 000)/1.13= 8.85 EUR. So basically it means that your own deposit of $200 will be wiped out for 22.59 pips. It means that your balance will be zero at only 1.1278 rate. As you can see when using leverage the speed of earning and losing increases significantly.

A careful reader may ask: is it safe for brokers to provide such a big loans (leverage) for traders? The answer is YES, its almost 100% safe for a broker to offer leverage to traders. As currency market has a very high liquidity, when your position reaches critical drawdown, brokers automatically make reversal exchange deduct the loan and leave you with losses. To protect themselves from risks connected with leverage, a position is closed when drawdown reaches 30% of required margin. In our example above, in case of drawdown your position will be automatically closed when drawdown reaches 70% from $200 or 140 bucks. There’ll be only 60 left in your account.

So here is the real trading example of how you can safely and effectively use leverage with SMALL deposit:

Screen Shot 2016-04-22 at 9.34.29 PM

If you have any suggestions or question feel free to ask them in comments

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22/04/16 Market notes

Kuwait boosts output back to 2.9M bbl, BoJ wants to extend QE

Kuwait boosts output back to 2.9M bbl, BoJ wants to extend QE

Kuwait has restored oil production to 2.9 million barrels a few days after the stoppage of oilmen was settled, reports Saudi business newspaper “Al-Iktisadiya”.
Production of crude fell in Kuwait from 3 million b / d before the strike began last Sunday to 1.6-1.8 (according to various sources) b / d on Wednesday, when it was suddenly halted.
The country is currently refining 830 thousand B / d compared to 930 thousand B / d In the period preceding the action of the workers.

The newspaper reports that the leaders of oil and petrochemical industry trade unions are back for negotiations with authorities of the country to discuss reservation of privileges and benefits for oil workers in the country’s overhauled payroll system.
Modernization of the payroll system, according to the country’s leadership, would make it possible to create more equitable working conditions and reduce public costs.

The newspaper writes that the Kuwaiti leadership stood pat in the negotiations with trade unions, saying that it won’t meet the strikers’ demands “under pressure”.Unions did not achieve its goals, the negotiations began in fact “from a scratch”, and observers do not rule out compromise solutions, provided no industrial actions are launched during the dialogue.
China’s stock market rose in Friday session due to the pick-up of consumer and technology sectors, offsetting declines in commodity companies, but major indices showed the biggest weekly drop in three months.
Reacting to initial losses, “blue chips” index CSI300, which tracks the value of securities of the largest companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 0.5 percent to 3.174,90 points by the end of the session. The index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Shanghai Composite added 0.2 percent and closed trading at around 2.959,24 points.
Last week the CSI300 fell by 3 per cent, while the SSEC lost 3.9 percent, showing the worst result since the end of week of January. The index, which tracks the shares of the commodity sector, fell 2.7 percent on Friday after the shares of steel companies, gold and copper producers.

Hong Kong stock market closed Friday in the red, responding to yesterday’s decline in the US stock market for the first time in four sessions due to disappointing quarterly results of US “blue chips”. The index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng fell 0.7 percent to 21.467,04 points. Index of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong, lost 1.4 percent, closing at 9.120,91 points.Week Hang Seng rose 0.7 percent, and HSCI dropped 1 percent.
The Bank of Japan, which introduced a negative interest rate in January 2016 on deposits of financial companies in the Central Bank, is considering the possibility of supporting the banks by providing them with loans at a negative rate, reports Bloomberg, citing informed sources.

According to the sources, this step can be taken simultaneously with a significant reduction in central bank interest rates on deposits in the Central Bank, which now stands at minus 0.1% per annum.
It is most likely that the loans at a negative rate will be issued under the program known as Stimulating Bank Lending Facility, the sources noted. Currently, banks receive loans under the program under the zero rate.
Experts believe that the addition of such a tool in the arsenal of the Bank of Japan will reflect positively on the national economy. At the same time, banks have already suffered from the introduction of negative rates, may be faced with the requirements of the borrowers to reduce the markup to the agreed interest rates on loans, the sources noted.

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21/04/16 Market notes

ECB remain untouched QE volumes, US preliminary labor data shows positive changes.

ECB remain untouched QE volumes, US preliminary labor data shows positive changes.

At the beginning of his speech at the press conference following the ECB meeting the chairman of the European Central Bank said that the regulator plans to keep rates at current or lower levels for a long time.
Draghi mentioned improvement in financial conditions, in spite of the continuing uncertainty in global financial markets.
Mario Draghi repeated his earlier statement that in the coming months inflation will remain negative, but it will rise later in the year.
Short-term Euro jumped to 1.1388 against the dollar after the announcement of the ECB on the improvement of the credit and financial conditions, but later pared down gains.European Central Bank will resume the buy-out of corporate bonds of the euro area in June this year, said the head of the ECB Mario Draghi at a press conference.
Speaking at the press conference after the regulator has kept its key rate at zero, Draghi said that the details of buying corporate bonds will be released later on Thursday.
According to his words, the maturity of corporate bonds, including bonds of insurance companies, can be up to 30 years, monthly volume of purchase will reach 80 billion euros which ECB is going to allocate for the purchase of assets.
The ECB said last month that it would buy bonds from the euro zone that have an investment grade rating.

US dollar fell against major currencies after the release of controversial economic reports in the US that boosted demand for the US currency, while the European Central Bank’s decision to keep rates at the same level had a significant support for the single currency. The pair USD / JPY fell 0.11% to 109.70.
US Department of Labor said the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending April 16 fell by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000 from 253,000 the previous week. Analysts had expected growth in the number of initial applications for 10,000 to 263,000 last week.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index this month fell to -1.6 from 12.4 in March. Economists had expected a smaller decline to 8.9. The EUR / USD rose 0.48% to 1.1351, erasing gains later, declining to 1.13 level.
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged at a record low 0.0%, in line with expectations.
The organization also left the same amount of its quantitative easing program by 80 billion euros monthly. The statement also pointed out that “the center of attention at the moment was the realization of additional non-standard measures adopted by the 10 March 2016”.

On Thursday, the UK Office for National Statistics reported that in March, the volume of retail trade decreased by 1.3% compared to expectations of decline of 0.1%. In annual terms, retail sales increased by 2.7%, while expected to grow by 4.4%.
Retail sales excluding cars fell by 1.6%, much more than expected fall of 0.4%.
A separate report showed that net borrowing of the public sector in March increased by 4.2 billion pounds after increasing by 6.49 billion pounds in the previous month. Analysts had expected last month in the public sector borrowing will rise by 5.5 billion pounds.

The Australian dollar rose, AUD / USD pair rose by 0.42% to 0.7827, while the pair NZD / USD stable at 0.6977.
Earlier, the National Bank of Australia said its index of consumer confidence fell in the first quarter to 4 from 5 in the three months from December, the figure was revised from a preliminary assessment  to 4 points. Pair USD / CAD fell 0.10% to 1.2642, holding nine-month low in the previous session of 1.2594.

Commodity currencies were supported as oil prices rose to their highest level since November after the International Energy Agency reported that in 2016 it expects the largest  decline in production in non-OPEC producers for 25 years.
USD index, which shows the relationship of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.36% to 94.21.  The number of Americans who first applied for unemployment benefits fell by 6 thousand last week – from 253 thousand to 247 thousand, according to the US Ministry of Labor report.  The index fell to the lowest since 1973.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, expected an increase in the number of applications for 8 thousand to 265 thousand.
Such a low rate of applications for benefits suggests that US companies are still optimistic about the outlook for demand in the country. Economists expect that the strong labor market will lead to higher consumer spending and support the US economy after a weak first quarter.

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20/04/16 Market notes

Oil bulls keep pushing up prices, surplus concerns will drag them to the ground soon

Oil bulls keep pushing up prices, surplus concerns will drag them to the ground soon

US dollar advanced  against the euro on Wednesday due to fears that tomorrow’s comments by the European Central Bank will have a negative impact on the common currency.
At the same time, some of the risky commodity currencies remained near multi-month highs amid soothing concerns about China’s economy outlook.
The euro sank, moving away from one-week high against the dollar of $ 1.1386 reached earlier in the session.  Euro lost 0.41 percent to $ 1.1313 in anticipation of the ECB meeting on Thursday. The currency has weakened, despite analysts expectations that the regulator will not likely announce further stimulus.
Australian and Canadian dollar fell slightly, moving away from multi-month highs in relation to the “greenback”, but were still close to this level because of the yelling of investors to riskier assets.
US dollar strengthened against the yen by a half of percent on hawkish comments from Kuroda saying stimulation program can be extended to prevent Yen from further strengthening. The dollar index gained 0.34 percent to 94.39 points.

Sales in the secondary housing market in the US rose in March more than expected, according to a report released on Wednesday by the National Retail Association, which increased optimism about the housing market and US economy in overall.
The data showed that the volume of home sales in the secondary market rose in March by 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted 5.33 million units from 5.07 million revised figure for February. The consensus forecast reported an increase of 3.5% to 5.30 million units.The report shows the health of the US housing market and is seen as a key indicator of the overall state of the economy.

Oil prices receded from the lows in Wednesday after the release of EIA data showing a smaller-than-expected increase in crude inventories in the week ending 15 April.
June WTI futures pared losses, managed to test the resistance level of $44.00 retreating to 43.80 level.
On the ICE exchange EIA report triggered abrupt surge of Brent which growth slowed only at 45.50 resistance level.
The message the Energy Information Administration showed that last week crude oil inventories increased by 2.08 million barrels, bringing the total amount of crude oil reserves to 538.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected inventories to increase by 2.4 million barrels.
Indicators were published the next day after the American Petroleum Institute reported that last week crude oil inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels to 539.5 million amid expectations of an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
Earlier Wednesday, oil sharply went into the negative, because the three-day strike ended in Kuwait and traders expect that the level of production in the country will soon return to normal.
A nationwide strike in Kuwait, which cut from the market 1.3 million barrels of oil per day, supported prices after the major manufacturers have not been able to agree on freezing oil in Doha on last Sunday
The end of strike sling up old and kind surplus concerns which are now ignored by the market. As rumors and news end market will probably turn bearish and return below $40 level. Its highly recommended to not join the current hype seen on the market.

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19/04/16 Market notes

Kuwait Strike props up Oil market, Iran tries hard to catch up with other oil producers.

Kuwait Strike props up Oil market, Iran tries hard to catch up with other oil producers.

Iran could reach pre-sanctions production levels within two months, said the country’s deputy minister of oil on Tuesday, confirming Tehran’s intention to ramp up production.

Iranian IRNA reported citing Deputy Oil Rokneddin Javad, Iran will be able to enter the pre-sanctions production levels by the end of the Iranian month of Khordad, or by June 20.Iran has refused to freeze production at January levels, which OPEC estimated at 2.93 million barrels per day, and wants to return to the level of 4 million barrels per day. According to the words of Javad last week production exceeded 3.5 million barrels per day.

Oil production in Kuwait  dropped to 1.5 million barrels per day, despite the indefinite strike of trade unions, said a spokesman of the industry to KUNA newspaper  on Tuesday.Thousands of workers of oil and gas industry of Kuwait went on strike on Sunday to protest against the planned reforms related to salaries in the public sector.The strike lasted for three days, and the trade unions did not report the timing of its completion.On the first day of the strike, oil production in Kuwait dropped to 1.1 million barrels per day from 2.8 million barrels per day in March.The strike in Kuwait raised world oil prices, sagging after unsuccessful negotiations black gold producers about production freeze.

Japanese yen tumbles on Tuesday while commodity currencies are rising due to the recovery in oil prices after the sharp fall in the previous session, stimulating the growth of investor sentiment.

Pair USD / JPY rose 0.49% to 109.33 with a one-week low on Monday 107.82.

On Tuesday, oil prices are seeing an increase as oil strike in Kuwait has reduced the level of production in the country by 60%, overlapping market frustration over unsuccessful negotiations between the major exporters to freeze production to support prices.Recovery in oil prices has strongly contributed to the growth of equity markets, resulting in a jump of European indices to three-month highs.

The fears of Japanese intervention to weaken the yen, force investors to remain cautious on increasing bullish pressure on Japanese currency.Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that he will take “various measures” against  further Yen strengthening and added that the sharp fluctuations in exchange rates are undesirable.

The US dollar fell in tandem with the Canadian dollar to a minimum 1.2740, its lowest level since July, and the pair is now trading at 1.2762.The Australian dollar peaked at 0.7803 and is now trading at 0.7777, up 0.37% today, while the pair NZD / USD grew by 0.91% to 0.7011.Euro shows an increase against the dollar, the EUR / USD strengthened by 0.24% to 1.1338.The euro was also up against the yen, with EUR / JPY rose 0.71% to 123.97.

The single currency found support after data showed the continued growth of economic sentiment in Germany this month.ZEW index of economic sentiment in Germany rose to 11.2 in April from 4.3 in March, beating the forecast of 8.0.USD Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major rivals, was down 0.13% to 94.33.Prospects for an early rise in US interest rates remains uncertain after the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren warned on Monday that rates may be raised sooner than investors expect that at the moment.Low interest rates make the dollar less attractive to investors looking for profit.

Meanwhile, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley warned that the US central bank is likely to stick to a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy.

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15/04/16 Market notes

Dollar fails to sustain gains on weak US production figures and step back on crude market

Dollar fails to sustain gains on weak US production figures and step back on crude market

March industrial production in the US fell more than expected, battering the optimism about the health of the US economy, official data showed on Friday. The Fed report showed that in the past month, the volume of industrial production decreased by 0.6% with a seasonal adjustments, more than the expected drop of 0.1%. In February, industrial production fell by 0.6%, the figure was revised down from a preliminary estimate of 0.5%.

Processing industries production decreased 0.3% last month with taking into account seasonal adjustments, missing forecasts for growth of 0.1%, after declining by 0.1% in February, the figure was revised down from the initial estimate of growth at 0,1%. The report also showed that the capacity utilization rate fell to 74.8% in March, compared with 75.3% a month earlier. The February figure was revised down from the original estimate of 76.7%. Analysts had expected a smaller decline to 75.4%.

The EUR/USD was trading at 1.1282, up from 1.1273 in anticipation of the release of the data, the pair GBP/USD was trading at 1.4174, up from 1.4155, while the pair USD/JPY was trading at 108.90, bounced from 108.84 support earlier in the session. USD index, which shows the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, was held at 94.79, down from 94.86 the day before the report. Futures on US stock indexes pointed to a lower Wall Street opening. Futures on the Dow fell 0.10%, futures on the S & P 500 fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.24%.

On the commodities market, gold futures were trading at $ 1230.70 an ounce, compared with $ 1233.00 before the release of the data, while crude oil futures were trading at $ 40.51 per barrel, up from $ 40.38. The greenback weakened in Friday against its major peers due to falling oil prices ahead of a meeting of producer countries in Doha, as well as the weak data on consumer sentiment in the US which have reduced risk appetite, causing investors to buy safe currencies such as the Japanese yen .

The dollar index, which tracks the value of US currency against a basket of six major rivals, unwind gains after the growth over the past two days. The decrease of US currency against the yen on Friday was the largest one-day decline in more than a week. “Perhaps there is some concern about the Doha negotiations”, – said a senior currency strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto Sean Osborne. Producers of oil, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia are scheduled to meet in the Qatari capital on Sunday, April 17 to discuss the freeze of production close to current levels and solve the problem of oversupply on world markets.

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14/04/16 Market notes

Dollar halts growth, crude traders quit bullish wagers as post-Doha move is unpredictable

Dollar halts growth, crude traders quit bullish wagers as post-Doha move is unpredictable

US dollar, hungry for gains since Yellen comments from March 29, continued to rise against other major currencies In Thursday after posting a biggest leap in a month in Wednesday amid eased concerns about global stagnation.
USD Index, which tracks the US currency against a basket of six major rivals, surged more than 1.2 percent in two days from 93.80 to 95.16 (today’s session high), erasing losses after gloomy Yellen comments tried to push Dollar lower.
On Wednesday, the index rose 0.84%, retreating from an eight-month low on Tuesday after data showed that China’s exports grew for the first time in nine months in March, signaling a leg up in global economic development.
The dollar received additional impetus yesterday on hopes G20 meeting in Washington will have new coordinated stimulation measures as a result, Asian indices showed an increase on the unexpected decision of the Central Bank of Singapore to join the ranks of ECB’s “easing-club”.

The drop on EUR / USD halted at 1.1240, the pair ranges in 1.1240-1.1290 corridor, bears powers seems to be played out. Six-month high at 1.1464 was reached on Tuesday.
The dollar fell against the yen, with USD / JPY pair declining 0.16% to 109.15, though trading significantly higher than 17-month low of 107.62 on Monday.
Growth is constrained by the yen yesterday’s comments head the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda, the central bank is ready to again loosen monetary policy if needed, adding that there are “many ways” to achieve the 2% inflation target.
Earlier this year, the Bank of Japan shocked the markets by its decision to drive rates to negative zone, however, the yen continues to strengthen, baffling plans of policymakers to stimulate the growth of prices.
The pound weakened as interest rate decision and asset-purchase targets came in line with expectations – BoE left the rate at 0.50% and asset-purchase program at 375B, GBP / USD was as low as 1.4100, bouncing back to 1.4160, still below the close of previous session.
Sentiment on the pound also came under pressure after poll YouGov has demonstrated about the same number of supporters and opponents of the UK stay in the European Union on the eve of the referendum on 23 June.
Crude futures for May rose as the dollar fell after the publication of disappointing data on US inflation, but growth is restrained on the eve of Sunday’s meeting of oil producers in Doha.
WTI started with declines today but was not ready to break $41.00 level, peaked at 42.11, Brent was as low as $43.40, later meeting resistance at $44.50.

The dollar lost its gains after data showed that consumer prices in the US rose in March, less than expected. A weaker dollar increases demand for oil, making it more affordable for buyers in other currencies.
But oil growth is likely to be limited because of the doubt what will be the result of a meeting of major oil producers in the
Qatari capital on Sunday and whether it will have a significant impact on the situation in the oil market.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said earlier that any agreement will be worked out only in general terms, with a small number of specific commitments.
Iran said it would not participate in the agreement on the freezing of production, until it returns to pre-sanction levels.
On Thursday, the International Energy Agency warned that the output deal will likely to have a limited impact on world supplies and markets are unlikely to restore the balance until 2017.
On Wednesday, data showing a larger-than-expected increase in US oil inventories also increased concerns about oversupply.
The US Energy Information Administration report said that crude oil inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels last week, bringing the total amount of crude oil reserves reached 536.5 million barrels.
Analysts had expected the stockpiles will grow by 1.85 million barrels.

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13/04/16 Market notes

Dollar rallies on upbeat news from China, Oil retreat from peaks as Al-Naimi says no to output cap

Dollar rallies on upbeat news from China, Oil retreat from peaks as Al-Naimi says no to output cap

Its only few days left before output talks are starting in Doha and traders are extremely concerned about the outcome of the meeting. The most likely scenario is a “soft freeze”, which does not imply any obligation on the part of the participating players, said Jeff Curry, strategist at Goldman Sachs, in an interview with Bloomberg TV. According to his words, “no one is interested” in serious steps to limit the supply that could reduce the glut on Oil market now.

Meanwhile, today at a conference in Lausanne, the heads of major energy market traders companies (Trafigura, Gunvor, Mercuria, Castleton, Glencore and Vitol) almost unanimously declared that the world oil market can return to balance by the end of 2016. Information on this matter appeared in Financial Times newspaper. The fall of oil prices occurred after the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, Ali al-Naimi has lowered the probability of freezing production on following meeting on Sunday.
According to Reuters, which cites the commentary of the local newspaper in Saudi Arabia, where oil minister Al-Naimi was asked about the reduction of production in the country, he said that should “forget about this”. The comments came a day after it became know that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached a consensus to limit production on the eve of the meeting on Sunday. Analysts have warned that the planned meeting of major Oil producing nations will have only a limited impact on the capping of global overproduction. There has been strong volatility on Oil market recent days. Daily swings widened as much as $3/bbl per day.

Hedge funds are building up bullish wagers in anticipation of further recovery of oil prices after the forthcoming meeting in Doha. However, from a technical point of view, Brent has risen too sharply, so the short-term growth potential is exhausted. Today, the focus of the attention of traders are also Energy Information Administration data on stocks in US storage tanks, which will be released today.

EIA report released today showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose 6.6 million barrels for the week ending April 8. At 536.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.  Oil prices extended declines after the release. As at 10:37 ET on the WTI crude oil for May delivery was down 79 cents, or 1.87%, to trade at $ 41.44 a barrel. Brent crude fell 62 cents to $ 44.05.
Greenback reached a two-week peak against the euro on Wednesday on the strengthening of global stock markets and upbeat data from China which made risky bets attractive to investors compared with the low-yielding currencies in Europe and Japan.

US advanced Retails sales data missed expectations (-0.3% vs 0.1% projected), managed to bar the Dollar rally, but US currency continues to show a positive trend breaking 1.13 level, finding resistance at 1.1270. USD rose 0.64 percent against the yen to 109.23 yen from Monday’s low at 107.61 yen. Euro was as low as  $ 1.1272.

“It is obvious that under the best of moods and speculation (in respect of interest), the euro and the yen should weaken,” – said the chief investment officer Sun Global Investments Sanjeev Shah.

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12/04/16 Market notes

Commodity market recovers, WTI gains ahead of Doha event, gold adds in price

Commodity market recovers, WTI gains ahead of Doha event, gold adds in price

Gold futures rose in US trading session on Monday.On the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery per troy ounce  rose 1.17% trading at a price of $ 1.258,30. Session highs was 1.260,50 USD per troy ounce. At the time of writing the material gold found support at $ 1.217,60 and resistance at 1.260,50 dollars.USD index showing the value of US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.28% and trading at 93.96 USD.

As for other commodities traded on the COMEX, silver futures for May delivery rose 3.71%,  reaching US $ 15.955. per troy ounce, while copper futures with delivery in May rose 0.05% reaching the level $ 2,088. per pound.
WTI futures rose during the American session on Monday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange WTI crude oil futures for May delivery traded at a price of $ 40.52/bbl rising 2.01% at the time of writing.The price peaked at  40,65 dollars/bbl. At the time of writing material WTI Oil found support at 36.43 and the resistance at 40.65 dollars.

As for other commodities traded on the ICE, Brent oil futures for delivery in June rose by 2.50%, reaching 42.99 dollars per barrel. The price difference between contracts for Brent and WTI crude oil was $2.47 per barrel. Natural gas futures were down during the US session on Monday. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas supply mmBtu for May delivery, fell 3.57% trading at a price of $1,919.The session low  was $1,908. Support  was found at $1,892 and resistance at 2,044 dollars.

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08/04/16 Market notes

Yellen defends her decision of December rate hike, stresses the need of delay for next liftoff

Yellen defends her decision of December rate hike, stresses the need of delay for next liftoff

The American economy is developing steadily, showing signs of inflation, so the Fed maintains a further plans to increase the key rate, said Fed Chair Janet Yellen at New-York conference, defending her decision to tighten policy at the end of last year.

In the framework of discussions in New York, which were attended by three previous FED heads, Yellen said that seven years after the severe financial crisis, the US labor market is close to the peak of its development. She also said again that inflation won’t be held back for a long time by strong dollar and low oil prices.

“The US economy continues to recover at a satisfactory pace. We continue to see a good level of employment, some signs of inflation – those were our expectations when we raise rates in December,” – Yellen said in a speech in the building of public organization “International House”.

“Therefore – yes, our monetary policy is an element of adaptation, however, we think that the policy of gradual rate increase would be acceptable.”, – Said Yellen, noting that the Fed will continue to follow the “reasonable way”.

The Fed has raised rates in December, marking the first increase in nearly a decade. The range of rates was set at between 0.25 and 0.5 percent.

The subject of debates was also the  US election campaign, in which Republican candidate Donald Trump has criticized the US regulator for the support of “bubbles” of assets.

“I definitely would not call the economy “bubble “,” – said Yellen, mentioning “healing”  labor market, where current unemployment  is 5 percents, i.e. approximately at the level the Fed seeks for.

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06/04/16 Market notes

Surprising EIA data boost crude, triggers Dollar selloff. Global markets turn the corner.

Surprising EIA data boost crude, triggers Dollar selloff. Global markets turn the corner.

After a step back made by global markets yesterday the growth was resumed today mainly due to upsurge on energy market. Oil futures resumed growth, boosted by surprising API crude inventories report which received confirmation by EIA release. WTI gained 4.35% and keeps on growing, Brent futures added 4.83% erasing yesterday losses.

EIA weekly account showed crude inventories in US shrunk 4.94M barrels to 529.9M total reserves on the week ending 1 April. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected crude reserves will renew records rising by 3.2M barrels.

A prime of crude rebound was API release in Tuesday forecasting a decrease by 4.9M barrels.  The comments of Kuwait representative in OPEC claiming Doha meeting will have the freeze deal in results  also provided a leg up for prices. Prices managed to rebound from $35.50 vicinities to 37 level, then saw a powerful push to $38 by EIA report.

The upsurge in crude didn’t pass unnoticed on currency markets. USD/JPY saw abrupt breakout to 109.50 level, retreating to 109.70 level, EUR/USD soared to 1.14300 struggling for further advance, USD/RUB fell 0.90% below 68 level, AUD/USD benefited from fragile Dollar gaining 0.8%. The confirmation from EIA was a “big trigger” for markets, signaling the turmoil is over and investors can resume bidding to risky assets. We will probably see expansion on European equity markets tomorrow amid rallying commodity shares which will drag the gauges up.

US Stocks halts three days losing stretch on news US government bars $160B takeover of Allergan by Pfizer as well as pickup on crude market. S&P 500 gains 0.61%, Dow 30 adds 0.39%.

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06/04/16 Market notes

Commodity selloff deepens, investors turn risk-averse

Commodity selloff deepens, investors turn risk-averse

Greenback demonstrated moderate gains against overseas majors in Tuesday as investors are now more disposed for safety plays amid commodities downturn. EUR/USD swung in the range of 1.1350 – 1.1400, relatively stable comparing to other major currency pairs. The bias of most traded currency pair is still unclear as traders are trying to guess whether US Dollar has a room for further depreciation on rate hike delays or optimistic economic updates from US give ground to increase bidding on the currency. Minutes from 15-16 March FOMC meeting will probably supply traders with more ideas on further FED actions, but still the report won’t have profound impact on greenback.

GBP/USD decreases as pound can’t get rid of pressure associated with Brexit risks. Major part of UK nation see country independent from European bloc while Premier Cameron tries to urge Britons to vote for saving the union. Online polls carried out by different magazines and online journals like recent The Telegraph poll have marked impact on UK currency.
Soared demand for safe heaven assets amid growing risk-aversion on global markets sent USD/JPY down to the lows of October 2014. The pair slammed seemingly shellproof support of 110 level, hitting new low of 109.95 rebounding to 110.30 on Asian session in Wednesday. In case Oil selloff worsens the pair bears will arguably head the gauge below 110 level.
Swiss Franc continues to gain attention as heaven asset as investors are losing confidence over further growth prospects and opt for reducing their risk exposure in risky assets. The pair has chances to extend declines if rout on equity markets will gain momentum.

Energy market which caved into depression after discouraging message of Saudi Prince tries to find and price in bidding signals, though “big bulls” seems to have left the market and now crude prices have chances to test $35 level again. WTI dropped -0.22% to $36.47 in Asian session in Wednesday, Brent fell 0.31% to 38.30. Wednesday EIA report will probably shore up price if crude inventories report will post declines, though there is no reason for US to decrease imports of cheap Oil.
Gold hit local peak of 1237.40 then retreated to 1231.50, the bidding on precious metal increases.

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04/04/16 Market notes

Commodity rout deepends, Russia increases Oil production.

Commodity rout deepends, Russia increases Oil production.

Traders and investors are massively dashing their bids on crude as rumors and expectations can not anymore underpin the market. Saudi Arabia ruined the hopes for fundamental improvements after prince Mohammed Al-Saud hit the wires in Friday saying current disunity between Iran and other Oil producing nations makes it impossible to freeze output. The news left energy market without footing, sparking off volatility and sending prices down 4 percents in Friday. The drop deepened in Monday, WTI lost 2.88 percents, Brent tumbled 2.48 percents.

Now markets don’t expect anything positive from Doha talks which will be held on 17 April. Iran Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he’ll attend meeting in Doha if he “finds time” meaning country will stand its ground on production freeze matter. The country already has boosted output over 2M barrels with 250K growth in March comparing to February production pace. The efforts of Russia and Saudi Arabia to stabilize market by freezing output on January levels he called a “positive step” which should help to balance prices.

Some analysts was repeatedly warning that rally is not fundamentally supported and markets will inevitably fall into retracement after it. Current decline could be a correction to fundamentally grounded levels which are, considering a drop in US production, should be somewhere $35.

Meanwhile Russia continue to add efforts in a fight for market share, producing 10,912M barrels in March which is 0.3% more than in February. Its the biggest output level not seen from 1987 year (11,5M barrels).
Baker Hughes weekly report showed 10 Oil wells were stopped in US last week, with total 362 rigs operating. US continues to cut down production capacities increasing imports of cheap Oil EIA report showed last week.
Tomorrow crude market will be waiting for API data which will show the change in US Crude inventories. Further growth of crude reserves will worsen oversupply concerns and probably pave the downward way for Oil prices.
To the other news.

US Dollar decline resumes in Monday as traders shrug off after strong NFP release. EUR/USD gains 0.11%, GBP/USD +0.40%, USD/CHF +0.05%. AUD/USD drops 0.92% due to rout on commodity markets, USD/JPY -0.44% as Yen rallies on increasing risk concerns. USD/RUB rallies 1.37% though there are too many ruble bidders trying to wait through the Oil pullback. Withdrawal from ruble support may cause abrupt spike of the pair above 70 level.

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02/04/16 Market notes

NFP report helps Dollar turn the corner, WTI drops on news from Saudis

NFP report helps Dollar turn the corner, WTI drops on news from Saudis

The losing streak of US Dollar against major overseas currencies halted after upbeat economic figures released by US labor department sparked off substantial demand on greenback. After Fed Chair Yellen scattered hawks with overly dovish commentaries on prerequisites for rate hikes, Dollar went into steep decline which slowed down only today.

Non-Farm Payroll change showed 215K jobs were added in March though median analysts estimate was 205K jobs. Average hour earnings increased 2.3% vs 2.2% anticipated mainly because of minor unemployment rate growth – 5.0% vs 4.9%. We can’t say labor data was too strong and could be the trigger for some substantial labor market changes in US but its release results in unprecedented volatility burst and spurred mighty U-Turn in Dollar pairs especially in EUR/USD.  The pair tumbled for Friday peaks of 1.1433 by 90 pips to 1.343   gradually returning to the growth after traders shrugged off from abrupt selloff.


Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 3.41.59 PM

Here what’s happened with EUR/USD

Other USD pairs had  similar backlash on news from US, GBP/USD plunged 1.03% from 1.4327 to 1.4175, managed to rebound to 1.4215 level, AUD/USD fell from 0.7676 to 0.7616 bouncing back to pre-NFP level.

Manufacturing ISM report released after NFP outstripped the expectations with 51.8 points in March vs 50.7 points expected. Report shows manufacturing industry in US is set for further expansion.

As US economy continues to show consistently positive changes, Fed chair will be probably urged to retreat or at least review her posture towards rate hike. As major part of the board voted for earlier rate hike,  further buoyant development  in US will possible foster the change to hawkish rhetorics on  next Yellen conference.

The statement of Saudi Arabia prince that output cap accord is unfeasible without Iran consent was a bolt out of the blue for commodity markets. The hope that OPEC and Non-Opec countries will freeze output on January levels fueled upward movement of Oil prices. Crude prices erased weekly gains turning bearish despite optimistic figures released by EIA in Wednesday. WTI and Brent tumbled more than 2.5%, headed for testing of $35 level.

On next week Dollar is expected to extend bullish momentum  fueled by speculation of earlier rate hike. Eroded confidence on commodity markets left Oil without driver for growth, so further declines are anticipated.

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30/03/16 Market notes

US Dollar loses footing on Fed Chair comments, commodity markets advance

US Dollar loses footing on Fed Chair comments, commodity markets advance

US Dollar tumbled against its overseas peers after dovish comments of Fed Chair Janet Yellen which diverted attention of investors from US economic improvements to the economic issues abroad. As the dissent in Fed panel increases (regional Fed officials vote for earlier rate hike, while Yellen prefers more discreet posture), the last word is up to FED head. And Yellen proved she holds situation under control announcing clear-cut plan for next rate hikes.
In her speech at Economic Club in New-York she advised investors to turn their focus on economic growth of developing countries and the risks of global slowdown with depressed Oil prices and deflation in some countries. When situation will be improved enough to avoid adverse effects from monetary tightening, it will be appropriate to discuss next rate hike.
The other reason to postpone the liftoff is a strong US Dollar that hurts exporters and transnational corporations (despite positive changes in US economy in almost every aspect – labor, inflation, manufacturing etc., corporate earnings report showed decline for last three months)
The most pessimistic forecast is that next rate hike may happen only in 1-2 years – the time needed for oil market to recover and stagnation in EU and Japan to recede. But major part of market sentiments the opposite – according to CME Group futures data, the probability of rate hike to 0.75 in April is 4.6%, In June it is 25%, and in December it overweighs other expectations with 40.8%. Upbeat economic figures from US for last 3 months demonstrate that the economy is stable enough to weather global economic storm that may be caused by next rate hike (though its also very unlikely and current Janet posture looks like exceptional cautiousness).
So after Yellen revealed the Fed position towards rate hike policy, there was no other option for US Dollar but to experience another severe selloff which extended to today’s trading session. EUR/USD was as high as 1.1365 today, rocketing from 1.1196 yesterday level, now the pair stabilized with 0.30% gains at 1.1324 level. GBP/USD saw upward spike to 1.4459 as well but later was subdued to 1.4388. USD/JPY floated in a range of 112.02 – 112.60% currently placated at 112.59 level. ADP employment change report released today (195K estimate, 200K actual) led to a brisk bidding impulse on US Dollar which wore off quite quickly.

Dollar drop

EUR/USD spike after Yellen speech

Commodity currencies appreciated against the greenback, fueled by growth on energy markets. WTI futures spiked to $40 level, but failed to hold its own under the thrust of bears, enjoying 0.91% gains as of 4:16 GMT. EIA data was in line with preliminary readings of API institute which predicted growth of 2.3M barrels of US crude inventories (the estimate was 3M barrels).

Screen Shot 2016-03-30 at 7.53.44 PM

  WTI declined after EIA release though the readings was in line with expectation

Stocks also advanced, the catalyst of course was weakened greenback, energy and mining shares scored best wins (Anglo American +11.81%, Rio Tinto +5.90%, Glencore +5.39%, Royal Dutch Shell +3.42%)

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28/03/16 Market notes

Morocco joins global easing efforts, Oil pares down last week losses.

Morocco joins global easing efforts, Oil pares down last week losses.

Central Bank of Marocco lowered key rate, joining the club of “monetary easing banks” which now numbers 46 countries.
For this year there were 15 cuts of interest rates indicating slowing global economy needs all-round support of central banks from different countries.
The trend was set by ECB which tries to expand QE extension, keeping on lowering rates and carry out massive buyout on bond market.
In contrast US Federal reserve is moving indifferent direction, striving to increase rates despite numerous warnings of slowdown if borrowing costs will become too expensive for the world.
In Thursday EZ March inflation data will be published which will indicate the pace of contraction of European economy. Prices are expected to extend February declines.
In Friday NFP report will throw light on further FED measures, analysts expect the expansion of US labor market will remain on February level or even increase.
There is growing controversy between statements of US Fed officials – dovish rhetorics of Fed head Janet Yellen on 16 March press conference mixes with hawkish promises of other officials, so position of the committee is quite unclear.
To the other news.
Europe is on holidays today, so most markets are closed. GBP/USD rose 0.24% to 1.4159 as Brexit risks are sidelined, USD/RUB and EUR/RUB decline, as commodity currencies mirror Oil advancement. WTI and Brent, two most traded benchmarks rose 0.53% and 0.17% respective after steep decline in last week on gloomy EIA data, showing stockpiles increased more than 3 times than projected (9.31M versus 3.1M barrels). Oil imports also increased in US last week.
US stocks closed in red on Friday, reducing risk exposure ahead of holidays.

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25/03/16 Market notes

Baker Hughes data help Oil to trim down losses, bears may be in a trap.

Baker Hughes data help Oil to trim down losses, bears may be in a trap.

Oil prices pared down losses on Thursday New-York session as drilling capacities in US resumed declines this week. Oil rig count dropped by 15 to 372, reports Baker Hughes, after it added 1 rig on the previous week. Now the number of rigs is the lowest for 6 years, losing more than 65% from the peak of October 2014.In contrast gas Oil rigs increased by 3 to 92 this week, total number of energy rigs fell 12 to 464.

The data released is quite controversial with current increase of US crude inventories by whopping 9.31M barrels this week reports EIA, versus 3.1M anticipated. Reducing Oil rig count implies that production of Oil in US should drop, while Production of Oil in US leveled off in August 2015 when efficiency per rig peaked then turned to decline as more and more Oil rigs have been idled.


With Oil rig count dropped by 70%, production decreased only by 5%

WTI, propped up by Baker Hughes data, pared down 1.5 percent loss from 2 percent steep decline closing at $39.59, Brent managed to get out of red figures, closing with 0.02% gains at 40.44.
After publication of downbeat EIA data and wave of bullish support rendered to US Dollar Oil prices dropped more than 2%, WTI touched 38.50, while Brent was as low as 39.30.

Today is Good Friday Holiday so European and US markets are closed.

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