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August 15, 2016

Trading signals and analytics 15.08.2016. Digesting Retail Sales data

Trading signals and analytics 15.08.2016. Digesting Retail Sales data

Hello traders,

Greenback got a crushing blow on Friday from US Advance Retail Sales report which showed weakest growth since April. The headline figure at 0.0% was 0.4% lower than medium analysts forecast triggering a rout among greenback bidders:

US Dollar futures


The rout, though, was quite a short-lived and the currency struggled to close the week with minimal losses as seen from the chart. Despite the offering tone resumed on Dollar on Monday, the change in FED decision futures hints Friday US Consumer report could have limited impact:

rate hike futures

As seen from the table December rate hike probability fell from 44.9% to 40.6% but still remains relatively high. Upbeat expectations on FED tighetning will provide strong support to US Dollar so any declines in currency will probably viewed as a point for bullish entry rather than supporting downward trend. Monday change in rate hike futures will help to make final gauge of impact from the report.


As seen from reaction on Gold (XAUUSD) a panic right after release of the report was quickly tamed, suggesting weak Retail Sales data had limited impact on markets. 

The signals for today:


The bullion will probably extend downside movement as high rate hike expectations imply lowered risks of global turmoil, thus higher demand of risk assets.

First target on Gold – $1,335.10, second – $1.330, Preferred lot size – 0.1 lot, TP – $1,335.10, SL $1.342.50


Pound (GBP/USD)

It’s a perfect moment to trade on the pair as it stays nearly post-Brexit lows. 1.29 level looks quite tough to break but it will probably yield on UK CPI or Unemployment data due on Tuesday and Wednesday. The pair is expected to climb to 1.30 once again then sink below 1.29 level on UK economic data which will probably trail below forecats.

Signal on Pound  UP to 1.3010 level then DOWN below 1.29.

First TP – 1.2990, SL  – 1.2870,

Second TP – 1.2870, SL 1.3020

Preferred lot size – 0.4 lot 

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