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June 10, 2016

Russian Ruble pares down gains ahead of CBR rate decision, BNP quits the currency.

Russian Ruble pares down gains ahead of CBR rate decision, BNP quits the currency.

Russian currency declined against US dollar on Thursday, retracing after the rally at the start of this week, peaking at 63.40. Further advance runs out of steam as the currency is in the power of external factors, like greenback weakening and oil. In the near term the focus is on the meeting of Central bank of Russia in Friday where decision on the interest rate will be announced.

Brent oil traded near 52 level, about 1 percent below Wednesday’s closing level, while the rally to $52.80 in the Thursday morning supported the upsurge of the ruble to the highs of this year.
The ruble still remains under the influence of external factors, especially negative ones from the oil pullbacks, further buoyancy looks pretty fragile. According to some analysts speculative force is not enough for oil to get over $52-$53 level.

Among the other deterrents of growth is the outcome of the FED meeting next week, but the closest major event is a decision on the rate of the Russian Central Bank, which will be announced today.
Analysts expect that the key rate will be left untouched at 11 percent despite the slowdown of inflation,rising oil and the strengthening of the ruble. Though some large investors which tied up in Russian currency, such as BNP Paribas, said that it’s time for a ruble selloff as the cut in interest rates will also cut returns of ruble holders, what dampens appeal of the currency. USD/RUB has chances to soar back to 70 level.

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