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November 23, 2017

Oil-Ruble correlation is back to the game. Now what?

Oil-Ruble correlation is back to the game. Now what?

US Output

With the upturn on energy market driven by various disruptions and OPEC pledge to keep production depressed for more, US crude output is on track for a new record. But now the industry seems to be learning how to live together with a new rival, rather than fighting with it.

According to EIA, US October output could set a new record of 6.1M b/d. The last high was reached on March 2015, when shale producers was extracting 6.09M barrels from their wells. It isn’t a finalized reading though, as the Energy department will revise it soon. Haynesville and Utica low-output regions has been excluded from the list because they account for only 70K b/d both. EIA forecasts that shale producers will rise to 6.28M barrels in December, pushing limits further.

Shale producers will probably take the lead of the US output as biggest oil companies in the US are turning their focus to shale repositories quicker effect comparing to traditional wells. More importantly its far more resilient to price declines and can be freezed/unfreezed without much operational loss. Though, the lifecycle of shale rigs is shorter and production costs are high what implies the output can be less stable when concentration of the rigs will reach a high number. The effect of shale oil production increase will be also offset because of transition to its production, NOT adding to current traditional extraction sources.

Some thoughts on USDRUB

Despite Russian economy is slowing, it definitely becomes more stable and well-prepared to new ordeals from the West.

Debt markets show that term premium narrows between short-term and long-term bonds, what is a direct indicator of declining uncertainty over the short-term bond yield behavior. Usually when long-term yields are higher than short-term the economy fares well (at least how investors perceive it), while short-term yields above long-term means investors demand higher premium for risk.

The things are really different comparing to US which short-term bonds are rising steadily because of uncertainty over Fed policy and tax reform.

Banking liquidity in Russia is on growth track as well and with oil prices seen near $70 we can expect a huge flow of carry traders back into Russian debt market. Price target for USDRUB is 55.00 and it really makes sense with good Russian economy.

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