Here is a brief overview of important economic events (past and due) you should start the week with:
FED Vice Chairman Stainley Fischer said in his interview on Sunday that US economy is close to arrive at its key economic goals – full employment and 2% inflation, fueling speculations Rate Hike can be in the pipeline.
The New-York Fed governor William Dudley said last Tuesday FED may raise rates as soon as in September, although futures for interest rate price in only 18% of increase on next FED meeting.
FED head Janet Yellen will speak in Jackson Hole on Friday which expected to provide more clues about FED stance on the Rate hike. GDP (annualized) and Advance goods Trade Balance figures core economic gauges will be also released on Friday helping to estimate how well US economy fares.
Nevertheless this Monday started on a very quiet note. After gloomy last week for US Dollar, where the currency lost its ground against majors opponents, minor rebound was seen during New-York session on Friday which was extended to Asian session today. US Dollar index had been declining the whole week before finding support near 94 level (two-month low):
As it seen from the chart the currency found resistance near 95.00 level though its now difficult to determine whether it is a true bounce from resistance or we see global bullish bounce from 94.00 running out of steam. I suggest to focus on 95.00 level, if greenback manages to cut through it then it will probably get a “green light” to extend rally; closing Monday session below 95.00 level would be probably a signal to take bearish side on US Dollar.
But key focus remains on Friday Yellen speech which is expected to help US Dollar to win back some of its last week losses.
Pound started near 1.3050 after a row of strong and relieving economic updates released last week, jumping to 1.3090 during London session. The pair is expected to find strong resistance at 1.31 level so the intraday signal is SELL, TP 1.3030, SL 1,3110. Preferred lot size – 0.2 lot.
The pair is expected to extend declines as 1.13 level is not likely to present an easy cliff to climb.
The signal is SELL – Preferred lot size – 0.1 lot, TP – 1.1210, SL – 1.13110
The Bullion fell last week, as low expectations of the rate hike in 2016 contributed to the outflow of cash from safe heaven assets and growing bets on emerging market assets. The uncertainty related to the Yellen speech this week will probably force investors to limit their risk exposure, so moderate upturn on gold is expected.
It could be a perfect time to bid on gold as it now approaches to its two week support level as it seen from the chart.
The Signal on Gold is BUY – Target – 1,350, SL – 1,295, Preffered lot size – 0.08 lot
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