For Brokers and Traders

Broker Arena
11/12/19 Trade Signals

BTCUSD Trade. Prepare to catch heavy SHORT!

BTCUSD Trade. Prepare to catch heavy SHORT!

Today I would like to introduce you to the Range fill analysis explanation for BTCUSD

This BTCUSD analysis is based on Daily timeframe , with the Exponential Moving Averages (emas) the confluence for our great analysis. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
04/12/19 Trade Signals

Gold prepares to jump. JUICY long trade

Gold prepares to jump. JUICY long trade

Fundamental context:

  • Clearly, China and US won’t make the deal. There was a lot of optimism priced in Gold (from me too!), based particularly on Trade Progress, which now starts to unwind
  • Tariffs are due to take effect on December 15. A lot of tariffs.
  • Surprising gloomy US Manufacturing PMI – 4 straight month in the downtrend, weak employment, new orders, production sub-indexes
  • Escalation over US Hong Kong and Xinjiang bill. Go and count how many times Chinese foreign Ministry used word “revenge” in their recent statements. 🙂

Technical context:

I expect to trade classic bullish flag which well-worked last time. Currently, the price has retraced by approx. 38% from the peak which is well enough to start expecting the breakout. RSI is in the downtrend watch for its breakout too as a confirmation. Key level to watch is 1490-1491, I wouldn’t recommend to get into the trade before we get the reason.


Gold bullish flag

My live account


Entry price: $1490-1491 only after pullback on the lower timeframe.
Take profit: $1600
Stop loss: $1469

Enjoy and Happy Trading!

0 likes no responses
01/12/19 Trade Signals

Really EASY setup for EURUSD. Start of December.

Really EASY setup for EURUSD. Start of December.

Hi guys,

This setup is perfect not because E/U direction is clear, but because it will be SUPER-EASY to realise that you are wrong and this mistake will be CHEAP.

But why?

E/U closed above 1.10 last Friday and frankly I was tempted to jump in after the breakdown and bet on momentum that will drive pair lower at least till 1.0950. There was some reasonable fundamental context for this trade (weekend close, December tariff uncertainty with Dollar acting a safe-heaven, etc.), but further price action revealed that I was wrong (Thanks God!) and I quickly closed the trade with small profit (Check my last trade And then …BOOM! you know what has happened, many breakout traders were trapped and are now sitting with their shorts hoping for the pressure to resume.


Support Area EURUSD



On 4H timeframe you can notice that the support area were largely not violated in the three previous attempts. Current support area is nearly crucial level of 1.10 where long-term trends may be initiated so this trade can be easily converted from short-term to long-term if further price evolution favours that. You may argue that support holding is relatively simple observation but remember that many successful trades have simple setups supporting them. There is no reason to complicate if we can propose simple model that (yeah, Occam’s razor).

Now turn to the logic of the trade. We have busy economic calendar next week with NFP and looming December 15 tariffs (possible inflection point) which are expected to be gradually clarified by the US-Sino officials. Therefore, the probability that the EU will finally CHOOSE trend is rising. It’s good because we look for early entry points and we basically don’t care about the trend direction but care about its onset instead. Combining this with the fact that the support remained intact (3 times) there is a reason to expect that E/U will start trending higher. I will bet on this. But if it won’t be confirmed we will quickly realise our mistake and close at SL during 4th, but this time TRUE breakout.


Entry point: As early as possible after the Monday start, above 1.10.

TP: 1.1090 – 1.11, but the trade can be converted to long-term, so I will let part of my profits run if conditions favour.

SL: Hard SL at 1.0980.

Enjoy and Happy Trading!

0 likes no responses
22/09/18 Market notes

Trump talks down oil prices, but forgets about own currency

Trump talks down oil prices, but forgets about own currency

Oil prices resist to depart higher from $80 per barrel but actively trying to attract more buyers.


Trump accuses OPEC of inflating prices on oil and promises to “retaliate”. Prices erased one dollar from his tweet last week, but already today they again approached their local highs. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
16/09/18 Market notes

Retail investors may be too slow to jump into leaving S&P 500 train

Retail investors may be too slow to jump into leaving S&P 500 train

Retail investors renewed cautious calls of US stocks as the S&P 500 continues to set new records.


But it’s probably to late to catch a move.

According to Investor Movement Index (IMX) retail investors and traders increased their bullish wagers on the US stock market in August – the index grew from 5.45 to 5.82 points. In July it remained unchanged compared to June.

Recall that IMX is calculated by the brokerage house TD Ameritrade, which client base is more than 6 million accounts, majority of which are non-institutional investors. 


Investor movement change


The index of retail sentiments hit a record high in December 2017, just a month before the collapse in the US stock markets. In April, the index reached through and then began gradual recovery, but February crash show s that it takes much more time for retail side to shrug off from fear and losses. Typically they are the last persons to receive important market information, that’s why they often became marginal buyers, i.e. buying stocks right before a crash. 

Slow recovery tells us that retail traders are quite cautious to buy highs as it’s quite difficult from a psychological point of view. In addition, concerns over trade “wars” between the US and China are growing.

In our opinion, IMX’s rally to the highs of December may be a signal that it’s time to start selling American shares and taking profits on them. Usually non-professional market participants are often late to the party – when “music stops”.

OPEC updated data about it’s aggregate output – second quarter in deficit in a row??


Crude oil production rose to 32.6 million barrels per day in August.  

Compared with July, production rose by 278K barrels.  Three OPEC members contributed to the positive change in production – Libya, Iraq and Nigeria, their extracted amounts increased by 256, 90 and 74 thousand barrels, respectively. At the same time US sanctions has finally fed into Iran exports which has decreased by 150 thousand barrels.

According to results of the third quarter of 2018, world oil consumption, according to OPEC forecast, will reach 99.38 million barrels per day, while the world supply except OPEC barrels will amount to 65.91 million barrels.


OPEC market balance


Thus, if the OPEC production remains at the August level then the oil deficit will increase to 1 million barrels per day. Similar market conditions are expected in the fourth quarter. 

Production of crude oil in the US has stalled at around 11 million barrels. Russian oil production is also not planned to increase this month. That is, if OPEC refuses to sharply ramp up production, then in the next quarter crude oil market can tighten further, falling into deficit. 

Oil deficit by 1 million barrels per day is unlikely to allow a significant drop for the oil prices. However, OPEC’s forecast for global consumption may be quite optimistic.

0 likes no responses
31/08/18 Market notes

Record US corporate earnings: A good criteria for fair valuation of shares

Record US corporate earnings: A good criteria for fair valuation of shares

United States corporations have gotten the record income ever. What’s the catch?

One of the most important factor, that affects US stock markets, has shown marked growth and has reached new maxima. The quarter net profit of the American companies has set a new absolute record.

From March till June legal entities of the USA have earned 1,97 trillion dollars. They have never gotten so much money. The previous record has been set in the third quarter of 2014, when the profit of the companies reached 1,92 trillion dollars. At the same time, these results are a little bit misleading, because of the tax reform, that was implemented in the end of 2017.

Thanks to decrease in fiscal payments the companies managed to get the record profit. In this case, the size of income before taxes would be more informative. In the second quarter of 2018 American organization have earned 2,2 trillion dollars, and the previous maxima was 2,32 trillion dollars.


corporate profits


The tax reform gave time to shareholders and investors and speed up further growth of shares. But the growth of income wasn’t matched by fundamental changes in companies’ business, it means that without tax burden relieve it was impossible to reach present results.

In our opinion, US government wants to prop up growth of stock market, despite the fact that the marked is a free space without government intervention. But this leads to somewhat overpriced valuation of shares, in other words, inflates the stock market bubble. If American companies’ income do not come to really growth, the full-blown correction will start.

0 likes no responses
18/08/18 Market notes

World recession risks and their possible impact on EURUSD

World recession risks and their possible impact on EURUSD

Is the world economy on the verge of recession?

One of indicators sends alarming signal about looming turmoil of the world economy.

Copper price in gold has shifted to a sharp drop in the past month. The reason is widespread dump on the commodity market, but copper price has been decreasing much quicker, than the precious metal. One ton of copper is estimated at 4, 86 troy ounces of gold now. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
08/08/18 Market notes

How To Understand That The Dollar Growth Is Running Out Of Steam?

How To Understand That The Dollar Growth Is Running Out Of Steam?

Dollar and gold price correlation may be key signal for next dollar move


The index of the American dollar has closed a yesterday’s trading session on a highest level since the beginning of this year. Following the results of Monday, the Index of dollar (DXY) has reached 95,36 points, highest since July 2017. Since February 2018 the dollar advanced by 7,5% against the main world currencies.

Achievement of local tops became possible thanks to decline of yuan and pound sterling. But euro is fiercely struggling for the current levels and doesn’t want to fall lower than 1,15 to dollar. Meanwhile, DXY managed to take hold above the line of the descending trend that opens the road for further ascension.

The index of dollar strongly correlates with the price of the gold for a while. At the moment of correction in the market of precious metal, DXY goes up and down. For its part, the gold depreciates, as the situation at world stock markets, especially in the US, is moving in a promising direction, so market players have no need to buy safe heaven assets. To determine whether US currency strengthening is over, we need to monitor the gold price.



Negative Dollar and gold price correlation, possibly due to US inflation concerns. Source: Bloomberg


If gold passes to growth, then DXY will pass to correction. The index of dollar has potential for growth. First, since July Fed has increased the volume of the sold papers from its balance. Secondly, in September, most likely, the rate will be raised. Third, ECB will stop printing money by the end of the year, what makes euro more fragile to dollar. Besides, the stock markets of the USA remain stable, despite the warning of imminent downfall, thus attracting foreign capital.


Who will play a supportive role in the US stock markets activity in August?


The American investors have preferred not to do any serious actions in July — their activity in the stock market remained abiding. Ordinary investors bought securities, but did it with the same wish, as in June. Investor Movement Index counted by TD Ameritrade remained at the same level, as in the first month of summer — 5,45 points.


Investor Movement Index 1

Investors movement index. Source: TD Ameritrade


Thus, the summer activity is still 37% lower than in December of last year when the Index has set a record in 8,59 points. Nevertheless, even without purchases of ordinary investors US stock markets have odds to continue the ascension. Prices of shares can be potentially supported by buybacks. Goldman Sachs counted, that August is the most active period of share buybacks from the market. On average, 13% of all annual volume account for the last month of summer. The American stock market, unlike many other world competitors, is directly focused on shareholders. This is the only stock market growing throughout so long period.


Distribution of buybacks by month

Distribution of corporate buybacks by months. Source: Goldman Sachs Investment Research


That’s why, the culture of buybacks with a view to increasing share prices for the owners of companies is high-level in this country. When the market left buyers, corporations which annually invest hundreds of billions of dollars in securities, come to the rescue. Bearing in mind, that the profit of the companies in the current year is near historical highs, voluminous buybacks would be pursued, so it will be difficult for “bears” to drop its cost.

0 likes no responses
06/08/18 Market notes

Saudi Arabia Can’t Find The Buyer For Its’ Oil?

Saudi Arabia Can’t Find The Buyer For Its’ Oil?


Saudi Arabia is in no hurry to raise output


The kingdom has suddenly scaled down the oil production for July, Bloomberg reports, recalling well-informed sources. The largest oil producer among the OPEC Member States – Saudi Arabia – reduced crude oil extraction last month by 200 thousand barrels. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
03/08/18 Market notes

Large players stay away from US stocks, anticipate their fall

Large players stay away from US stocks, anticipate their fall


Market-makers have stocked up with the record-breaking amount of government bonds of the US.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, by last Tuesday the sum of the accumulated state bonds on balance of 23 main dealers of the American treasury bonds reached 159,6 billion dollars. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
02/08/18 Market notes

Shale companies in USA are facing with the serious problem?

Shale companies in USA are facing with the serious problem?

Crude oil output in the Permian oil field becomes uneconomic, despite the huge production in this region.

The slack in infrastructure of the Permian basin hit even British Petroleum, admitted Bob Dudley, the head of the company, in the interview for Bloomberg TV. Losses from trade turned out to be insignificant for the oil giant, but many other companies are facing them too. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
31/07/18 Market notes

Corporate Profits Or Balance Sheet – What Actually Matters For S&P 500?

Corporate Profits Or Balance Sheet – What Actually Matters For S&P 500?

Creating and killing bond bubble


ECB said on last Thursday that it plans to halt bond-buying program in December 2018.

According to the press release, monthly asset purchases will be reduced from 30 to 15 billion euros In October, and from the beginning of next year the balance sheet will stop to grow. In 2019 the ECB will remain on the market and will stick to reinvestment policy, i.e. the funds received at maturity will be used to buy European bonds. It means that there won’t be aggressive bond buying and instead ECB will try to maintain its balance sheet on some fixed level. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
20/07/18 Market notes

China biggest corporate default in history and some thoughts on US production

China biggest corporate default in history and some thoughts on US production

EIA data is at odds.. with it’s own forecasts


US oil output has been stagnating for almost a month, what doesn’t stop US Energy department to anticipate production growth in the country.

The average daily crude oil production in the United States in June stalled at 10.9 million barrels per day. At the same time, according to the data of the same Energy Department, production in the seven main coastal fields of the country in June increased by 1.8% or 126 thousand barrels and amounted to 7.2 million barrels. In July, it is projected to increase by another 139 thousand barrels

It was thought that the Permian basin – main oil field in the country has transportation issues, as all pipelines are full of oil. But according to the estimates of the US Department of Energy, Premium basin was the driver for output growth in June, where production increased by 67 thousand barrels per day. In July and August, it is expected to show additional output gains of 72.9 and 73 thousand barrels per day, respectively.


Production in Permian Basin

Permian based production continues to rise – despite contradictory data


At the same time, US refineries have almost full capacity utilization, what means hubs are fulls and freshly extracted crude oil should go to exports.

There have been cases when the Ministry of Energy noticeably slashed its forecast and output numbers of the seven largest US fields. Therefore, it is likely that these figures will also be revised.

Also earlier, the department noted that the data is referred only to shale oil. Now this wording is excluded, and the Ministry reports both traditional and “shale” oil has been produced in the basins.

It’s embarrassing that the production in the US hasn’t change in the last month, but according to the forecast the United States has increased and will increase its production. It’s possible that in the near future EIA will either report about sharp increase in production or adjust forecasts to lower values.

One of China’s energy companies specializing in coal mining, Winline Energy Co., Ltd. went bust in the current month. The total debt of the firm estimated at 72.2 billion yuan or 10.8 billion dollars. Thus, the scope of corporate debt problems in China rose to a new record level. As it was announced yesterday, state banks will come to the rescue of Winline.


China biggest corporate default happened. What’s next?


The current year may be the worst for the debt market in China in history.

Against this background, the fall of the yuan continues against the dollar. The hope for rebound of the Chinese market rapidly wanes. For the period of February-July, the market erased retreated almost by 15% from its’ peaks.

In addition, since 2014, currency and gold reserves have ceased to grow in China, which can signal problems in the country’s economy and in the current financial model.



China FX reserves

China FX reserves rapidly declined following massive capital flight in 2015. Source:


There are special funds in China that on command of the government buy securities to support the stock market.

Also, the state is now carrying out a campaign to reduce the credit burden of enterprises and Winline case shows that the government helps large players in the market.

Given the size of China’s economy and the volume of loans issued, the snowball of corporate bond defaults can happen and the likelihood of this event is growing.

0 likes no responses
17/07/18 Market notes

OPEC hits spare capacity limits, US budget deficit growth accelerates

OPEC hits spare capacity limits, US budget deficit growth accelerates


According to an estimate of the EIA released last week Saudi Arabia will have to use all of its spare production capacity to make up for the drop in oil exports from sanctioned Iran and financially troubled Venezuela. The data shows that OPEC spare capacity equals to the Saudi Arabia’s meaning it’s the only member in the cartel which can substantially raise production.

However prices started the week with a severe drop, pricing in the news that US may deploy its strategic reserves to correct market prices if OPEC won’t take action on request from the US. 

IEA released a report this week which stated that, the Kingdom could expand production additionally up to 2 million barrels in May. In June, it fell to 1.58 million, and in July it was already up to only 1 million barrels.


Saudi Arabia spare output capacity

Saudi Arabia spare capacity heads to the lower bound. Source IEA, Bloomberg


What this data says is that Saudi Arabia hiked its oil output by about 500 thousand b/d in May. Over the summer months, the output of the kingdom rose by 0.9-1 million barrels.

According to the US Department of Energy, in June, OPEC’s ability to raise oil production fell to 1.54 million barrels per day, which corresponds to capacity reserves of Saudi Arabia. That is, the only country capable of materially increasing production is the Middle Eastern kingdom.

At the same time, in 2016, when the world oil market was hit by extreme oversupply, OPEC spare capacity averaged 1 million barrels. It is possible that production of the cartel will be difficult to fall below this level.


OPEC spare capacity

OPEC spare capacity is equal of the Saudi Arabia’s


Spare capacity is used like a safety cushion as it allows to absorb supply shocks and maintain production at safe level to meet it with demand. Flurry outages from Iran, Libya, Venezuela and Canada create dangerous situation where the oil shortages may not pass unnoticed and cause sharp price spikes as reserve capacity of OPEC and Russia is reaching lower existing bound. 

Taking into account historical data, won’t likely to add more than 500K barrels additionally to its production but the market glut may loom on the horizon, because US producers don’t sleep as well and keep output at record peaks. Recall that according to OPEC estimates, global demand will reach 99.4 only million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2018, while projected total world supply – 99.2 million barrels. In other words oil market will probably need to find additional supply to return to equilibrium.

So even with increase of output by 1M barrels in June to 11M barrels, Saudi Arabia probably failed to cover the deficit of crude oil and the fears of oversupply could be overstated.


No worries about the debt…yet


Since the beginning of the fiscal year, the US budget deficit has risen to $607 billion.

In the first nine months of 2018 (fiscal year in the US started in October 2017), the budget deficit exceeded $607 billion, which is 16% more than in the same period of last year.

In 2017, expenses exceeded revenues by $665.8 billion, $ 58.7 billion higher than the current amount for only 9 months from 12.


Budget deficit US by year

US budget deficit by year. Source:

For the first nine months of this year, the budget received 2.5 trillion dollars, and spent 3.1 trillion dollars. Against this background, the US national debt reached 21.2 trillion dollars.

By the way, the growth of public debt is far from the fastest in the last ten years. For example, in 2009, due to the economic crisis, the budget deficit exceeded $1.4 trillion. And for four consecutive years it was more than 1 trillion.

Despite the fact that the US debt is already more than 21 trillion dollars, at the current interest rates, the United States creditworthiness is not particularly at risk. It is enough for the United States that the world economy grow at a moderate pace what ensures low interest rates and the dollar remains major reserve currency. That also ensures stable demand from the world to US debt securities which credit risk remains at 0 level. 

Each year the United States sells Treasuries worth $600-700 billion through auctions, and for the entire global economy this is not pretty much. The US will be in danger when the cost of debt servicing will surge. Today it is about 400-450 billion dollars a year.

0 likes no responses
12/07/18 Market notes

Saudi Arabia June Output Hike Misunderstood?

Saudi Arabia June Output Hike Misunderstood?


“Embarrassed” oil market due to Saudi Arabia June output hike. But why?


Crude oil output from OPEC in the past months increased by 173 thousand b/d. Saudi Arabia added the most in joint cartel’s production.

Saudi Arabia June output hike averaged 405 thousand barrels a day. This was quite unexpected information for the market and prices posted biggest intraday decline for several months (-4% for Brent on July 11). This was truly a market crash. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
11/07/18 Market notes

US corporate bond market structure indicates rising risks

US corporate bond market structure indicates rising risks

The US corporate debt market is rapidly losing its quality.


Deterioration in credit rating – a signal of the uncertainties of the times ahead for US firms?

According to Morgan Stanley estimates, the volume of bonds issued with investment grade “BBB” exceeded 2.56 trillion dollars, which is 10 billion dollars more than the amount of debt securities with the highest credit rating.  Continue reading

0 likes no responses
10/07/18 Market notes

Investor Movement Index rebounds, correction fears ebb

Investor Movement Index rebounds, correction fears ebb

A sigh of relief on retail side?


Retail investors resumed cautious buying of US equity in June despite trade war fears.

Last month, the Investor Movement Index (IMX) rose to 5.45 points maintaining growth for a second month in a row. Prior to that, the Index was down for four consecutive months. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
09/07/18 Market notes

What bond yield curve tells us about stock market rally?

What bond yield curve tells us about stock market rally?


What’s happening with the bond yield curve today?


US structure of interest rates continues to flatten out, i.e. the difference between the interest rates on Treasuries of longer and shorter maturity has been decreasing steadily towards zero, what fuels rumors about the fragile growth of US economy we witness today.

At the end of last week, the difference between yields on 30 and 10-year US government bonds has dropped to 0.11 basis points – a record low which hasn’t been seen from during the height of 2007 mortgage crisis. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
28/06/18 Market notes

Credit spreads in US and some thoughts on 200-day average

Credit spreads in US and some thoughts on 200-day average

The spread between US investment-grade debt securities rose to a 16-month high.

As a result of Friday, spreads between the yields of investment-grade bonds reached 1.22 percentage points, which is the highest level since the beginning of 2017. Continue reading

0 likes no responses
1 2 3 4 9
Top 10 Forex Brokers
  1. Tickmill UK
    Rating: 5.0. From 2 votes.
  2. Really EASY setup for EURUSD. Start of December.
    Rating: 5.0. From 1 vote.
  3. Pepperstone
    Rating: 5.0. From 1 vote.
  4. FX Pro
    Rating: 5.0. From 1 vote.
  5. Trend Line, A Basic Analysis
    Rating: 5.0. From 1 vote.
  6. Trading Session? What Exactly Is It?
    Rating: 5.0. From 1 vote.